The Educational Needs Index ProjectNational Overview for SHEEO-NCES Network
Houston D. Davis, Ph.D., Tennessee Board of Regents
Brian E. Noland, Ph.D., Tennessee Higher Education Commission
Patrick Kelly, National Center for Higher Education Management Systems
This research is sponsored by:
Additional thanks to:Tennessee Board of RegentsTennessee Board of Regents
Tennessee Higher Education CommissionTennessee Higher Education CommissionNational Center for Higher Education Management Systems National Center for Higher Education Management Systems
Austin Peay State UniversityAustin Peay State University
• Foundation developed in late 1990’s as a means to evaluate educational challenges in Tennessee
• Tennessee Tomorrow and the Tennessee P-16 Council
• Journal of Social Indicators Research (February 2003)
• Southern Governors Association (October 2003)
• SREB Adult Learning initiative (2004)
• Lumina grant submission and receipt (2004-05)
• Base project and regional policy audits (2005-06)
Educational Needs Index Project Development - Background
• Education and the economy are increasingly intertwined as human capital becomes a centerpiece of the knowledge economy.
• State budgets are increasingly challenged by fluctuating state revenues.
• The demographic characteristics of the states are not uniform from region to region. The current use of only state-level indicators in the planning process limits the ability of planners to differentiate between the various regions of the nation.
• Educational planning indicators need to be linked with economic and demographic variables to provide a legitimate representation of our citizens.
Educational Needs Index Foundational Constructs
• Individuals and society derive economic benefits from human capital investments in people.
• Based on the notion that education increases the human capital stock of individuals, improves their productivity, leads to increases in economic productivity, and contributes to the general betterment of society. (Denison 1983; Walberg and Zhang 1998).
• The advancement of educational attainment has become an indispensable variable in policy efforts to make improvements of society as a whole.
Human Capital Theory
• In the Knowledge Economy, education, technology, and learning are the keys to sustainable economic growth.
• Higher education provides the foundation for the Knowledge Economy.
• Elected officials must remain diligent in their efforts to make significant investments in their educational infrastructures.
• In order to remain competitive, states must work to develop policies that incorporate human, intellectual, and financial capital.
The Knowledge Economy and Higher Education
• Education and the economy are increasingly intertwined as human capital becomes a centerpiece of the knowledge economy.
• State budgets are increasingly challenged by fluctuating state revenues.
• The demographic characteristics of the states are not uniform from region to region. The current use of only state-level indicators in the planning process limits the ability of planners to differentiate between the various regions of the nation.
• Educational planning indicators need to be linked with economic and demographic variables to provide a legitimate representation of our citizens.
Educational Needs Index Foundational Constructs
• Education and the economy are increasingly intertwined as human capital becomes a centerpiece of the knowledge economy.
• State budgets are increasingly challenged by fluctuating state revenues.
• The demographic characteristics of the states are not uniform from region to region. The current use of only state-level indicators in the planning process limits the ability of planners to differentiate between the various regions of the nation.
• Educational planning indicators need to be linked with economic and demographic variables to provide a legitimate representation of our citizens.
Educational Needs Index Foundational Constructs
Education Factors - Percent of 18-64 Year Olds with a HighSchool Diploma, 2000
40.6% to 75.7%75.7% to 82.4%82.4% to 87.5%87.5% to 97.3%Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census
Economic Factors – Percent of the Population Age 64 andUnder Living in Poverty, 1999
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census
15.3% to 53.8%11.3% to 15.3%8.3% to 11.3%0.0% to 8.3%
Market Factors – Projected Percent Change in the PopulationAge 64 and Under, 2000-2020
17.5% to 100.0%5.5% to 17.5%
-2.8% to 5.5%-42.6% to -2.8%
• Education and the economy are increasingly intertwined as human capital becomes a centerpiece of the knowledge economy.
• State budgets are increasingly challenged by fluctuating state revenues.
• The demographic characteristics of the states are not uniform from region to region. The current use of only state-level indicators in the planning process limits the ability of planners to differentiate between the various regions of the nation.
• Educational planning indicators need to be linked with economic and demographic variables to provide a legitimate representation of our citizens.
Educational Needs Index Foundational Constructs
• The geographic and demographic diversity of the nation provides challenges to those planning for the delivery of private or public goods and services.
• As recently noted by the Southern Growth Policies Board, states need to build and maintain a more complete demographic profile of their workforce … This profile should take into account the educational,
economic, and population growth factors of all counties in the region, thereby providing a clear picture of workforce opportunities and challenges.
• The purpose of this research is to develop an econometric model that answers this call, thereby providing direct evidence of the link between education and social welfare.
Improving the Policy Toolbox
• Model examines the connections between educational, economic, and population characteristics at the county level
• Combines 15 county level variables that directly impact Participation rates in post-secondary education Educational attainment levels Employment patterns Socio-economic status
• Provides for state, regional, and national comparisons
Educational Needs Index Model Development and Construction
• Educational Factor – Indicators assess the educational capacity of a county’s adult population.
• Economic Factor - Indicators in this category assess the degree of economic challenges and opportunities facing counties.
• Market Demand Factor - Indicators assess the present population growth issues facing the county and potential need for increased emphasis on human capital development to address changing demographics of a county.
• Population Factor – Indicators serve as corrective variables to control for the population size of each respective county.
Educational Needs Index Factor Categories
Educational Needs Index FactorsENI Factor Categories and Associated Indicators
Education Factor (30% of ENI)
Percent of 18-64 Year Olds with a High School Diploma (2000)
Percent of 25-64 Year Olds with an Associates Degree (2000)
Percent of 25-64 Year Olds with a Bachelor's Degree or Higher (2000)
Difference in College Attainment Between Young (25-35) and Older (45-64)
Economic Factor (30% of ENI)
Unemployment Rate (2003)
Percent of Population Under 65 in Poverty (2000)
Median Family Income (2000)
Per Capita Income (2000)
Percent Manufacturing Employment (2000)
Market Demand Factor (30% of ENI)
Rate of Population Growth 64 and Under (1990 to 2000)
Projected Percent Change in 64 and Under Population 2000 to 2020
Percent of Population Ages 0 to 19 (2000)
Percent of Population Ages 20 to 44 (2000)
Percent At-Risk Minority (2000)
Population Adjustment Factor (10% of ENI)
Percent of State Population Ages 0 to 44 (2000)
• What is the current level of educational attainment of the state and its respective counties?
• What is the current health of each state’s counties from an economic perspective?
• Are there counties in the state that are quickly growing and have shifting demographics that skew toward youth, young adults, or at-risk minority populations?
• What counties in the state can be identified by the ENI to be under-educated, facing economic challenges, and facing robust population growth and shifting demographics in categories of youth, young adults, or at-risk minority populations?
Educational Needs Index Key Questions
Educational Needs Index Model
The Education Factor and Its Four Indicators
Education Factor (30% of ENI)
Percent of 18-64 Year Olds with a High School Diploma (2000)
Percent of 25-64 Year Olds with an Associates Degree (2000)
Percent of 25-64 Year Olds with a Bachelor's Degree or Higher (2000)
Difference in College Attainment Between Young (25-35) and Older (45-64)
ENI – Education Factor by Quartile
Greene
co*cke
Hamblen
Jefferson
MorganAnderson
Knox
Union
BledsoeGrundy
Van Buren
Sequatchie
Meigs
BentonHumphreys
Houston
Lewis
Wayne
LawrenceGiles
Coffee
Warren
MooreMcMinn
RutherfordWilliamson
BradleyPolk
Hamilton
Lincoln
Marshall
Hardin
Decatur
McNairyHardeman
Fayette
Henderson
MadisonHaywood
Lauderdale
Tipton
Shelby
Crockett
Cheatham
MontgomeryRobertson
Monroe
Loudon Blount
Franklin Marion
Grainger WashingtonHawkinsCampbell
Claiborne Hanco*ck
Unicoi
Carter
Sullivan JohnsonScottFentress
Overton
Pickett
Jackson
ClaySumner
HenryWeakley
ObionLake
Bedford
Cannon
Carroll
Chester
Cumberland
Davidson
DeKalb
DicksonDyer Gibson
Hickman
Macon
MauryPerry
Putnam
Rhea
Roane Sevier
Smith
StewartTrousdale
White
Wilson
Educational Needs Index for Tennessee Counties - Education Factors
Levels of Educational Need
Most CriticalCriticalLess CriticalLeast Critical
Crawford
Roscommon
Kalkaska Oscoda
Otsego
Osceola
IsabellaNewaygo
ClareLake
St. JosephBranchCass Monroe
Lenawee
Washtenaw
Hillsdale
WayneOakland
Jackson
Ingham
Kalamazoo
Berrien
CalhounVan Buren
Livingston
ClintonMacomb
LapeerSt. ClairGenesee
Gratiot
Huron
Montcalm
Midland
Kent
Mecosta
Ottawa
Muskegon
Gladwin
Bay
MasonArenac
OgemawManistee MissaukeeIoscoWexford
BenzieAlconaGrand Traverse
Leelanau
MontmorencyAlpena
Presque IsleCheboygan
Emmet
Mackinac
ChippewaSchoolcraftAlger
Delta
Menominee
Dickinson
Marquette
BaragaOntonagon
Houghton
Gogebic
Allegan
Antrim
Barry
Charlevoix
Eaton
Ionia
Iron
Keweenaw
Luce
Oceana
SaginawSanilac
Shiawassee
Tuscola
Educational Needs Index for Michigan Counties - Education Factors
Levels of Educational Need
Most CriticalCriticalLess CriticalLeast Critical
White Pine
Esmeralda
Clark
LyonCarson CityDouglas
Storey
Nye
Lincoln
Lander
Eureka
Washoe
Elko
Humboldt
Churchill
Mineral
Pershing
Educational Needs Index for Nevada Counties - Education Factors
Levels of Educational Need
Most CriticalCriticalLess CriticalLeast Critical
ENI – Education FactorComparison of States by Quartiles
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Lou
isia
na
Geo
rgia
Ark
ansa
sT
exas
Ten
nes
see
Ari
zona
Ken
tuck
yM
issi
ssip
pi
Wes
t_V
irgi
nia
Flo
rida
Nev
ada
Ala
bam
aSou
th_C
arol
ina
Cal
ifor
nia
New
_Mex
ico
Ala
ska
Mis
souri
Okla
hom
aV
irgi
nia
Haw
aii
Idah
oW
ashin
gton
Nor
th_C
arol
ina
na
Ore
gon
Mar
ylan
dC
olor
ado
New
_Jer
sey
Ohio
Sou
th_D
akot
aK
ansa
sU
tah
Illin
ois
Mic
hig
anN
ebra
ska
Mon
tana
Pen
nsy
lvan
iaW
isco
nsi
nD
elaw
are
Ver
mon
tM
aine
New
_Ham
psh
irW
yom
ing
New
_Yor
kIo
wa
Min
nes
ota
Nor
th_D
akot
aC
onnec
ticu
tM
assa
chuse
tts
Rhod
e_Is
land
Educational Needs Index Model
The Economic Factor and Its Five Indicators
Economic Factor (30% of ENI)
Unemployment Rate (2003)
Percent of Population Under 65 in Poverty (2000)
Median Family Income (2000)
Per Capita Income (2000)
Percent Manufacturing Employment (2000)
ENI – Economic Factor by Quartile
Tuolumne
Stanislaus
San JoaquinMariposa
CalaverasMono
Amador
LakeColusa
YoloSonomaNapa
San Benito
Madera Fresno
Merced
Marin
San FranciscoContra Costa
Solano
Los Angeles
Santa Barbara
San Luis Obispo
KingsMonterey
Kern
Santa Clara
Alameda
San Mateo
Santa Cruz
Sutter
Butte
Orange
Sacramento AlpineEl Dorado
Yuba PlacerNevada
Sierra
PlumasMendocino
Tehama
Trinity
Humboldt
Del Norte
San Bernardino
ImperialSan Diego
Inyo
LassenShasta
ModocSiskiyou
Glenn
Riverside
Tulare
Ventura
Educational Needs Index for California Counties - Economic Factors
Levels of Educational Need
Most CriticalCriticalLess CriticalLeast Critical
Stoddard
Ripley
ChristianLawrence
Bollinger
Madison
St. Francois
WashingtonSte. Genevieve
St. LouisSt. Louis city
St. CharlesCallaway
Boone
Livingston
CaldwellChariton
ClintonCarroll
Harrison ScotlandSchuyler Clark
Webster
Dallas Laclede
Pulaski
DunklinPemiscot
New Madrid
Mississippi
Cape Girardeau
Reynolds
Shannon
Stone
Phelps
Crawford
FranklinJeffersonMiller
CamdenHickory
MoniteauCole
Osage
Warren
Howard
Randolph
SalineLafayette
Jackson
Platte
Buchanan
Monroe
Pike
Ralls
Shelby
Holt
Andrew
Atchison
Adair
Audrain
Barry
Barton
Bates Benton
Butler
Carter
Cass
Cedar
Clay
Cooper
Dade
DaviessDeKalb
Dent
Douglas
Gasconade
Gentry
Greene
Grundy
Henry
Howell
Iron
Jasper
Johnson
Knox Lewis
Lincoln
Linn Macon
Maries
Marion
McDonald
Mercer
Montgomery
Morgan
Newton
Nodaway
OregonOzark
Perry
Pettis
Polk
Putnam
Ray
Scott
St. Clair
Sullivan
Taney
Texas
Vernon
Wayne
Worth
Wright
Educational Needs Index for Missouri Counties - Economic Factors
Levels of Educational Need
Most CriticalCriticalLess CriticalLeast Critical
BerkeleyMorgan
Jefferson
Calhoun
Roane
Gilmer
Braxton
Wirt
Putnam
Cabell
LoganMingo
Boone
MineralHampshire
Marion
Harrison
MonongaliaWetzel
Marshall
Taylor
Jackson
Mason
Summers
Raleigh
Monroe
Randolph
Grant
Hanco*ck
Brooke
Ohio
Hardy
Upshur
Lewis
Ritchie
Clay
NicholasKanawha
LincolnWayne
Fayette
Webster
Pocahontas
Greenbrier
Mercer
Barbour
Doddridge
McDowell
Pendleton
PleasantsPreston
Tucker
Tyler
Wood
Wyoming
Educational Needs Index for West Virginia Counties - Economic Factors
Levels of Educational Need
Most CriticalCriticalLess CriticalLeast Critical
ENI – Economic FactorComparison of States by Quartiles
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Mis
siss
ippi
Ark
ansa
sA
labam
aL
ouis
iana
Ten
nes
see
Sou
th_C
arol
ina
Ken
tuck
yW
est_
Vir
ginia
New
_Mex
ico
Geo
rgia
Nor
th_C
arol
ina
Okla
hom
aA
rizo
na
Mis
souri
Idah
oA
lask
aC
alifor
nia
Mic
hig
anT
exas
Was
hin
gton
Ore
gon
Mai
ne
Ohio
Vir
ginia
Sou
th_D
akot
aM
onta
na
Flo
rida
India
na
Col
orad
oIl
linoi
sPen
nsy
lvan
iaV
erm
ont
Uta
hN
orth
_Dak
ota
Mar
ylan
dN
ew_Y
ork
Wis
consi
nM
innes
ota
Kan
sas
Neb
rask
aIo
wa
New
_Jer
sey
Wyo
min
gC
onnec
ticu
tD
elaw
are
Haw
aii
Mas
sach
use
tts
Nev
ada
New
_Ham
psh
ire
Rhod
e_Is
land
Educational Needs Index Model
The Market Demand Factor and Its Five Indicators
(plus the Population Adjustment)
Market Demand Factor (30% of ENI)
Rate of Population Growth 64 and Under (1990 to 2000)
Projected Percent Change in 64 and Under Population 2000 to 2020
Percent of Population Ages 0 to 19 (2000)
Percent of Population Ages 20 to 44 (2000)
Percent At-Risk Minority (2000)
Population Adjustment Factor (10% of ENI)
Percent of State Population Ages 0 to 44 (2000)
ENI – Market Demand Factor by Quartile
Choctaw
Marshall
BaldwinMobile
Escambia
Dale
Houston
Tallapoosa
Elmore
Chambers
Pike
Crenshaw
Conecuh
Monroe
Washington
Clarke
Wilcox
GreeneHale
MarengoDallas Montgomery
Lowndes
Barbour
Bullock
RussellMacon
Lee
CoosaChilton
Bibb
Perry
Sumter
TuscaloosaShelby Clay
St. ClairCalhoun
Cleburne
CherokeeEtowah
Blount
CullmanMarion
LawrenceMorgan
Madison
DeKalb
JacksonLimestone
Colbert
Lauderdale
Autauga
Butler
Coffee
Covington
Fayette
Franklin
Geneva
Henry
Jefferson
Lamar
Pickens RandolphTalladega
Walker
Winston
Educational Needs Index for Alabama Counties - Market Factors
Levels of Educational Need
Most CriticalCriticalLess CriticalLeast Critical
Greenlee
Graham
Santa Cruz
Maricopa
Pima
Yuma
La Paz
Pinal
Gila
Yavapai
Mohave
ApacheCoconino
Cochise
Navajo
Educational Needs Index for Arizona Counties - Market Factors
Levels of Educational Need
Most CriticalCriticalLess CriticalLeast Critical
Henderson
Warren
Putnam
Livingston
La SalleBureau
Tazewell
Mason De Witt
Peoria
McDonough
ChampaignPiatt
Vermilion
Moultrie
Coles
Cumberland
Clark
BondFayette
Madison
WayneEdwards
Richland
Jefferson
WabashLawrence
WhiteMonroe
Randolph
St. Clair
Perry
JacksonFranklin
Washington
Union
Williamson
PulaskiMassac
Johnson
Alexander
Pope Hardin
Hamilton
Gallatin
Saline
Clinton
Crawford
Effingham
MontgomeryMacoupin
GreeneCalhoun
Scott
Jersey
Pike
Morgan
Ford
SangamonBrown Cass
Schuyler
Adams
Hanco*ck
Fulton
Knox Stark
Henry
Woodford
Kankakee
GrundyMercer
Rock Island Will
Kendall
DuPageDeKalbCook
Carroll
Stephenson
Ogle
Jo Daviess Winnebago McHenryBoone Lake
Christian
Clay
DouglasEdgar
Iroquois
Jasper
Kane
Lee
Logan
Macon
Marion
Marshall
McLean
Menard
Shelby
Whiteside
Educational Needs Index for Illinois Counties - Market Factors
Levels of Educational Need
Most CriticalCriticalLess CriticalLeast Critical
ENI – Market Demand FactorComparison of States by Quartiles
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Ari
zona
Uta
hD
elaw
are
Geo
rgia
New
_Mex
ico
Cal
ifor
nia
Mis
siss
ippi
Ala
ska
Col
orad
oN
evad
aFlo
rida
Idah
oSou
th_C
arol
ina
Tex
asL
ouis
iana
Mar
ylan
dW
ashin
gton
Nor
th_C
arol
ina
Ala
bam
aO
rego
nV
irgi
nia
Ten
nes
see
Haw
aii
New
_Jer
sey
Sou
th_D
akot
aM
innes
ota
Ark
ansa
sM
assa
chuse
tts
Okla
hom
aK
entu
cky
Mis
souri
India
na
Illin
ois
Mon
tana
Kan
sas
Ohio
Wyo
min
gM
ichig
anN
ew_Y
ork
Nor
th_D
akot
aN
ebra
ska
Wis
consi
nPen
nsy
lvan
iaIo
wa
Wes
t_V
irgi
nia
New
_Ham
psh
irC
onnec
ticu
tV
erm
ont
Rhod
e_Is
land
Mai
ne
ENI – Overall Analysis by Quartile
Greenlee
Graham
Santa Cruz
Maricopa
Pima
Yuma
La Paz
Pinal
Gila
Yavapai
Mohave
ApacheCoconino
Cochise
Navajo
Educational Needs Index for Arizona Counties
Levels of Educational Need
Most CriticalCriticalLess CriticalLeast Critical
GilmerMurray
Fannin
FranklinBanks
StephensHabersham
Calhoun
Randolph
Clay
Early Baker
Terrell
Webster
DeKalb
Gwinnett
ClaytonRockdale
Cobb
Newton
Lanier
Lowndes
Cook
Clinch
Bulloch
Effingham
Bryan
Candler
Thomas
Brooks
Mitchell
Grady
Chattahoochee
MuscogeeMarion
SchleyStewart
White
Hall
Madison
ClarkeOglethorpe
OconeeWilkes
Richmond
McDuffie
Glasco*ck
GreeneMorgan Columbia
Warren
Lincoln
Barrow
Walton
Baldwin
Hanco*ck
WashingtonJones
LamarPike
Upson
Spalding Butts
Monroe
Atkinson
Coffee
Ware
Berrien
MeriwetherTroup
Harris
Fulton
Douglas
Fayette Henry
Paulding
Coweta
Carroll
Jefferson
Quitman
Ben Hill
Telfair
Irwin
Wilcox
Echols
JasperHeard
Johnson
EmanuelLaurens
Wilkinson Jenkins
Chatham
Liberty
Long
Talbot
Whitfield
Chattooga
Walker
Catoosa TownsRabun
Union
Lumpkin
Dawson
Crawford
Peach
BleckleyHouston Treutlen
Montgomery
WheelerToombs
TattnallDodge
Jeff Davis
Seminole
Decatur
Pulaski
Worth
Charlton
Brantley
Wayne
Dooly
Burke
ForsythBartowFloyd
Dade
Appling
Bacon
Bibb
Camden
Cherokee
Colquitt
Crisp
Dougherty
Elbert
Evans
Glynn
Gordon
Haralson
Hart
Jackson
Lee
Macon
McIntosh
Miller
Pickens
Pierce
Polk
Putnam
Screven
Sumter
Taliaferro
Taylor
Tift
Turner
Twiggs
Educational Needs Index for Georgia Counties
Levels of Educational Need
Most CriticalCriticalLess CriticalLeast Critical
Marshall
LyonMcCracken
CampbellKenton
Pendleton
Boone
BrackenMason
FlemingHenry
Carroll
RowanBath
Nicholas
Morgan
Wolfe Magoffin
Breathitt
Johnson
FloydEstill
Madison
JacksonGarrard
Mercer
Boyle
OwsleyPike
Perry
Letcher
Knott
Whitley
McCreary
KnoxWayne
EdmonsonButler
Warren
Henderson
Union
Webster
Hopkins
Caldwell
Crittenden
Christian
Todd
Livingston
Fulton
Hickman
Cumberland
Metcalfe
ClintonMonroe
Barren
Washington
Nelson
Anderson
Boyd
Greenup
GreenTaylor
McLean
Daviess
Lewis
FayetteWoodford
Larue
Hardin
Meade
BreckinridgeHanco*ck
Allen
Lawrence
Martin
HarlanBellSimpson
Logan
Calloway
Carlisle
AdairBallard
Bourbon
Bullitt
Carter
Casey
Clark
Clay
ElliottFranklin
Gallatin
Grant
Graves
Grayson
Harrison
Hart
Jefferson
Jessamine
Laurel
Lee
Leslie
Lincoln
Marion
MenifeeMontgomery
Muhlenberg
Ohio
Oldham
Owen
Powell
Pulaski
Robertson
Rockcastle
Russell
ScottShelby
Spencer
Trigg
Trimble
Educational Needs Index for Kentucky Counties
Levels of Educational Need
Most CriticalCriticalLess CriticalLeast Critical
Pearl RiverStone
JacksonHarrison
Hanco*ck
Humphreys
Carroll
Holmes
Washington
Montgomery
Choctaw
GrenadaWebster
Lamar
ForrestMarion
Covington
LawrenceJefferson Davis
Simpson
Lincoln
Copiah
AmiteWalthall
Claiborne
Jefferson
Lauderdale
Newton
Madison
YazooNeshoba
Leake
Winston
Scott
Attala
LowndesOktibbeha
Sunflower
Bolivar
Yalobusha ChickasawCalhoun
Pontotoc
Monroe
Quitman
Panola
Coahoma
Lafayette
Itawamba
TunicaTate
DeSoto
Prentiss
TishomingoTippah
Alcorn
Wilkinson
Adams
SmithJasper
ClarkeRankin
Hinds
Warren
SharkeyIssaquena
Clay
Benton
Marshall
Franklin
George
Greene
Jones
Kemper
Lee
Leflore
Noxubee
PerryPike
Tallahatchie
Union
Wayne
Educational Needs Index for Mississippi Counties
Levels of Educational Need
Most CriticalCriticalLess CriticalLeast Critical
GuadalupeBernalillo
Cibola
Lincoln
De Baca
Santa Fe
Harding
Luna
SandovalMcKinley
Socorro
Grant
Hidalgo
Otero
Chaves
Lea
Roosevelt
Curry
Quay
San Miguel
Mora
UnionRio Arriba
Catron
Colfax
Dona Ana Eddy
Los Alamos
San Juan
Sierra
Taos
TorranceValencia
Educational Needs Index for New Mexico Counties
Levels of Educational Need
Most CriticalCriticalLess CriticalLeast Critical
Greene
co*cke
Hamblen
Jefferson
MorganAnderson
Knox
Union
BledsoeGrundy
Van Buren
Sequatchie
Meigs
BentonHumphreys
Houston
Lewis
Wayne
LawrenceGiles
Coffee
Warren
MooreMcMinn
RutherfordWilliamson
BradleyPolk
Hamilton
Lincoln
Marshall
Hardin
Decatur
McNairyHardeman
Fayette
Henderson
MadisonHaywood
Lauderdale
Tipton
Shelby
Crockett
Cheatham
MontgomeryRobertson
Monroe
Loudon Blount
Franklin Marion
Grainger WashingtonHawkinsCampbell
Claiborne Hanco*ck
Unicoi
Carter
Sullivan JohnsonScottFentress
Overton
Pickett
Jackson
ClaySumner
HenryWeakley
ObionLake
Bedford
Cannon
Carroll
Chester
Cumberland
Davidson
DeKalb
DicksonDyer Gibson
Hickman
Macon
MauryPerry
Putnam
Rhea
Roane Sevier
Smith
StewartTrousdale
White
Wilson
Educational Needs Index for Tennessee Counties
Levels of Educational Need
Most CriticalCriticalLess CriticalLeast Critical
Eastland
ComancheCallahan
Erath
Shackelford Palo P intoStephens
Hemphill
WheelerGray
RobertsLipscomb
CookeGrayson
CollinDenton
Wise
MontagueFannin
Hopkins
Delta
Lamar
CampMorris
Titus
Marion
Bowie
UpshurWood
HarrisonVan Zandt
Red River
Cass
LovingWinkler
WardCulberson
El Paso
GillespieBlanco
Kendall
KimbleWilliamson
Milam
Robertson
LeeBurleson
BurnetBrazos
Angelina
San Augustine
Sabine
JasperTrinity
Houston
Polk Tyler Newton
Jackson
Wharton
VictoriaDe Witt
Calhoun
HamiltonColemanBrown
Hood
Bosque
WallerAustin
MontgomeryWashington
ShelbyNacogdoches
PanolaRuskCherokee
Anderson
GreggSmithHenderson
BrooksJim Hogg
Duval
Kenedy
Rains
JeffersonLiberty
Chambers
Orange
Dickens
Kent
KingCrosby
CottleFloyd
Fayette
Wilbarger
Knox
Foard Wichita
Kaufman
Zapata
Starr
Mcmullen
Live Oak
Atascosa Karnes
La Salle
Bandera
San Jacinto
MclennanLimestone
Hill
LeonReagan
Irion
Glassco*ckUpton
Crockett
co*keTom Green
Concho
Mcculloch
Midland Sterling
Ector
CraneLampasas
Runnels
TaylorNolan
Mitchell
HowardMartin
FisherJonesScurry
Borden
Dawson
Jim WellsWebbNueces
San PatricioAransas
San Saba
Parker
JackThrockmortonYoung
Stonewall
Haskell
GarzaLynn
Terry
Dallas
BaylorHockley
Lubbock
Yoakum
Cochran
MotleyLamb
BriscoeHall
Hale
Castro
Bailey
DonleyChildressParmer
Deaf Smith
Swisher
Randall
OldhamPotter
Carson
CollingsworthArmstrong
HutchinsonMoore
Hansford
ShermanDallam
Ochiltree
Ellis
Real
Edwards
Uvalde
Willacy
BrazoriaMedina
Bexar
Caldwell
Reeves
Pecos
Terrell
Val Verde
Maverick
Hidalgo
Refugio
Bastrop
BrewsterPresidio
Jeff Davis
Hudspeth
Andrews
Archer
Bee
Bell
Cameron
Clay
Colorado
Comal
Coryell
Dimmit
Falls
Fort Bend
Franklin
Freestone
Frio
Gaines
Galveston
Goliad
Gonzales
Grimes
Guadalupe
Hardeman
Hardin
Harris
Hartley
Hays
Hunt
Johnson
Kerr
Kinney
Kleberg
Lavaca
Llano
Madison
Mason
Matagorda
Menard
Mills
Navarro
Rockwall
Schleicher
Somervell
Sutton
Tarrant
Travis
Walker
Wilson
Zavala
Educational Needs Index for Texas Counties
Levels of Educational Need
Most CriticalCriticalLess CriticalLeast Critical
Thurston
Kitsap
YakimaFranklin
Walla Walla
Columbia
Garfield
Pend OreilleFerry
Stevens
SpokaneLincoln
AdamsWhitman
AsotinBentonWahkiakum
Cowlitz Skamania
Klickitat
KittitasGrant
Douglas
Chelan
OkanoganSkagit
King
Pierce
Pacific
Grays Harbor
Mason
Jefferson
Clallam
Island
San Juan
Clark
Lewis
Snohomish
Whatcom
Educational Needs Index for Washington Counties
Levels of Educational Need
Most CriticalCriticalLess CriticalLeast Critical
ENI Overall AnalysisComparison of States by Quartiles
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Lou
isia
na
Mis
siss
ippi
Ari
zona
Del
awar
eG
eorg
iaN
ew_M
exic
oA
labam
aSou
th_C
arol
ina
Ten
nes
see
Ark
ansa
sK
entu
cky
Ala
ska
Tex
asU
tah
Cal
ifor
nia
Flo
rida
Idah
oN
orth
_Car
olin
aO
kla
hom
aW
est_
Vir
ginia
Mis
souri
Rhod
e_Is
land
Nev
ada
Col
orad
oW
ashin
gton
Vir
ginia
Ore
gon
Sou
th_D
akot
aM
aryl
and
India
na
Mon
tana
Ohio
Nor
th_D
akot
aN
ew_J
erse
yK
ansa
sN
ebra
ska
Illin
ois
New
_Yor
kM
ichig
anPen
nsy
lvan
iaW
isco
nsi
nH
awai
iC
onnec
ticu
tV
erm
ont
Wyo
min
gM
aine
New
_Ham
psh
ire
Min
nes
ota
Iow
aM
assa
chuse
tts
Educational Needs Index Project
ENI Model and Data for All U.S. Counties
Additional Analysis of PUMS Data for Selected Counties/Regions
Field Visits/Policy Audits for Selected Urban and Rural Regions
Final report to be published by Lumina and include national highlights, region profiles, analysis of best practices, and policy
recommendations.
Southeastern Kentucky and Northeastern Tennessee
Southeastern Kentucky and Northeastern Tennessee
Educational Needs Index (ENI) and Examples of Supporting Data Employed in Regional
Policy Audits
Southeastern Kentucky and Northeastern Tennessee Counties and 5% PUMS Areas – High ENI Region
Kentucky Counties
Bell
Harlan
Knox
Whitley
Tennessee Counties
Campbell
Claiborne
Hanco*ck
Morgan
Scott
Percent of State Population Ages 0 to 44 (%)
Percent Minority (%) 2000
Rate of Population Growth 64 and Under (1990 to 2000)
Percent of Population Ages 20 to 44 (%) - 2000
Percent of Population Ages 0 to 19 (%) - 2000
Projected Percent Change in 64 and Under Population 2000 to 2020
Percent Manufacturing Employment (%) 2000
Per Capita Personal Income - 2000 ($)
Median Family Income 2000 ($)
Percent of Population Under 65 In Poverty (%) 2000
Unemployment Rate (%) 2003
Difference in College Attainment Between Young and Older
Percent 25-64 Year Olds with a Bachelor's Degree or Higher (%)
Percent 25-64 Year Olds with an Associates Degree (%) 2000
Percent 18-64 Year Olds with a High School Diploma (%) 2000
Low Need High Need
Educational Needs Index – Average Index Scores for Each Measure, Southeastern KY and Northeastern TN
Education Factors
Economic Factors
Market Factors
Population Adjustment
-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Educational Attainment of the Young Adult Population Ages 18 to 24 in 2000
Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census
5.2%
23.7%
38.6%
29.5%
3.1%
11.9%
34.3%
28.6%
21.3%
4.0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
College degree
Some college, no
degree
High school graduate
(includes equivalency)
9th to 12th grade, no
diploma
Less than 9th grade
SE Kentucky and NE Tennessee U.S. Average
Educational Attainment of the Adult Population Ages 25 to 64 in 2000
Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census
4.4%
5.1%
3.5%
13.8%
38.3%
19.8%
15.1%
9.4%
17.1%
7.2%
22.3%
27.8%
10.7%
5.4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Graduate or professional
degree
Bachelor's degree
Associate degree
Some college, no degree
High school graduate
(includes equivalency)
9th to 12th grade, no
diploma
Less than 9th grade
SE Kentucky and NE Tennessee U.S. Average
Percent of the Population In Poverty, 2000
Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census
11.5%
8.5%
11.1%
14.8%
16.9%
17.6%
18.2%
22.4%
19.4%
24.8%
31.4%
35.5%
37.7%
36.0%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
75 years and over
65 to 74 years
18 to 64 years
12 to 17 years
6 to 11 years
5 years
Under 5 years
U.S. SE Kentucky and NE Tennessee
Percent Employment by Occupation in 2000
Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census
14.6%
9.4%
0.7%
26.7%
14.9%
20.2%
13.5%
24.8%
14.4%
1.0%
21.9%
15.1%
15.7%
7.0%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Production, transportation, andmaterial moving occupations:
Construction, extraction, andmaintenance occupations:
Farming, fishing, and forestryoccupations
Sales and office occupations:
Service occupations:
Professional and relatedoccupations:
Management, business, andfinancial operations
occupations:
U.S. SE Kentucky and NE Tennessee
Percent Employment by Industry in 2000
Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census
4.8%
4.9%
7.9%
19.9%
9.3%
6.9%
3.1%
5.2%
11.7%
3.6%
14.1%
6.8%
1.9%
4.6%
4.1%
6.1%
22.2%
3.8%
3.4%
1.5%
5.8%
12.6%
2.3%
20.0%
8.4%
4.9%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Public administration
Other services (except public administration)
Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation and food services:
Educational, health and social services:
Professional, scientific, management, administrative, and wastemanagement services:
Finance, insurance, real estate and rental and leasing:
Information
Transportation and warehousing, and utilities:
Retail trade
Wholesale trade
Manufacturing
Construction
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining:
U.S. SE Kentucky and NE Tennessee
Average Annual Earnings (18 to 64 Year Olds) by Level of Educational Attainment – 2000
Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 Public Use Microdata Samples (based on the 2000 Census)
$42,465
$66,242
$36,524
$33,997
$28,248
$19,269
$19,221
$16,924
$74,061
$95,891
$61,866
$51,453
$36,476
$32,783
$28,145
$21,882
$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000
Doctorate
Professional
Masters
Bachelor's
Associates
Some College
High School
Less than High School
SE Kentucky and NE Tennessee U.S. Average
Difference in Average Annual Earnings Between College Graduates and High School Graduates– 2000
Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 Public Use Microdata Samples (based on the 2000 Census)
$9,027
$14,776
$8,330
$23,307
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
Additional Earnings For an Associates Additional Earnings For a Bachelor's
SE Kentucky and NE Tennessee US Average
Average Annual Earnings (18 to 64 Year Olds) by Occupation, 2000
Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 Public Use Microdata Samples (based on the 2000 Census)
40,182
26,089
50,521
31,516
35,741
19,041
58,586
23,888
21,427
34,920
13,921
25,756
8,728
12,365
12,140
16,429
16,163
11,553
24,600
26,015
18,928
21,542
64,962
48,912
55,288
54,243
47,669
32,063
74,961
35,023
41,952
54,283
20,723
37,017
17,120
20,526
20,599
40,115
26,903
17,750
31,178
34,713
28,823
29,159
$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000
Management
Business and Financial Operations
Computer and Mathematical
Architecture and Engineering
Life, Physical, and Social Science
Community and Social Services
Legal
Education, Training, and Library
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical
Healthcare Support
Protective Service
Food Preparation and Serving Related
Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance
Personal Care and Service
Sales and Related
Office and Administrative Support
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry
Construction and Extraction
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair
Production
Transportation and Material Moving
US Average
SE Kentucky and NE Tennessee
Net Migration of 18 to 64 Year Olds by Educational Attainment (1995 to 2000)
Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 Public Use Microdata Samples (based on the 2000 Census)
-269
174
-105
19
-934
-421
-64
-182
1,244
-1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500
Total
Doctorate Degree
Professional Degree
Masters Degree
Bachelors Degree
Associate Degree
Some College
High School
Less than High School
Net Migration of 18 to 64 Year Olds by Occupation (1995 to 2000)
Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 Public Use Microdata Samples (based on the 2000 Census)
-314
-226
-197
-178
-173
-158
-144
-131
-116
-103
-96
-75
-74
-23
36
44
57
63
82
103
146
170
976
-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
Office and Administrative Support
Healthcare Support
Production
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media
Business and Financial Operations
Transportation and Material Moving
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical
Community and Social Services
Protective Service
Computer and Mathematical
Legal
Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance
Architecture and Engineering
Education, Training, and Library
Life, Physical, and Social Science
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair
Construction and Extraction
Personal Care and Service
Sales and Related
Food Preparation and Serving Related
Management
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry
No Occupation (Not Working in 2000)
Educational Needs Index Urban and Rural Policy Audits
Rural Targets
Urban Targets
• Shared with NCHEMS, SHEEO, WICHE, SREB, and MHEC
• Visit state SHEEO agencies
• Rural and urban site visits: provide in-depth analysis of expanded data set environmental scan examination and discussion of best practices and public
policy intervention site visits include meetings and focus groups with key
policy-makers and other regional officials
Educational Needs IndexRegional Research Strategy
• Regional education organizations using the ENI in their outreach and policy/planning discussions
• Project has aided several organizations in the development of grant proposals and building a case for need and importance of selected areas
• Institutional researchers have found the ENI to be helpful in strengthening the depth and scope of their environmental scanning activities
• Educational systems seeking the establishment of P-16 regional networks have employed the ENI in raising awareness of the growing importance of partnerships.
• Various education, economic development, and advocacy groups have found the comparison data at local, regional, and state levels to be particularly useful in public presentations seeking to inform the public debate surrounding the relationship between education and the economy
Educational Needs IndexImproving the Policy Toolbox
For additional information on the Educational Needs Index contact:
Dr. Houston Davis, Tennessee Board of Regents
[emailprotected] or 615/366-3975
Dr. Brian Noland, Tennessee Higher Education Commission
[emailprotected] or 615/532-3862
Mr. Patrick Kelly, NCHEMS
[emailprotected] or 303/497-0307
For detailed information about ENI visit:
http://www.educationalneedsindex.com
mailto:[emailprotected]
mailto:[emailprotected]